It's Not Rigged, It's Math

It's not rigged, it's math. During the 2000 election, whites made up 78% of the vote. Now it's down to 69%. This is important to Republicans because the only solid majority they have is 61% of white men. White women are evenly split in their party identity and slowly trending toward Democrats. All other ethnic groups in the Pew Research surveys have solid Democratic majorities. This means, as a country, we split 48% Democrats and 44% Republican.

Notice how neither has 51%? This means the 8% undecided or 3rd party voters are more important than ever. Bizarrely, both candidates have lost voters who normally identify with one of the major parties. Hillary Clinton would have lost a 4% lead had she not gained so many Black votes (according to recent polls). Conversely, Donald Trump has lost 8% of voters. This puts Republican affiliation down from 44% to 36%. It also means 1 in 5 Americans are undecided or going for a 3rd party!

These polls were taken prior to last week's audio recordings of Donald Trump bragging about alleged sexual assault. Since then 9 women have come forward, claiming some form of sexual harassment or sexual assault. The polls already trend toward Democrats among women, combined with thin support among minorities, the Republican candidate is sure to lose his bid for president (45% Clinton vs. 36% Trump according to Pew).

It's important to note the largest loss in the chart I drew up: 61% of white men identify as Republicans. Only 52% of white men say they will vote for Donald Trump. To me, this seems the most surprising figure. For all of the talk about independents, minorities, Millennials and college-educated white women, it might be that the loss of traditionally Republican white men will be the undoing of the 2016 Republican bid for president.

** sources **
• http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/

 

• http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/the-parties-on-the-eve-of-the-2016-election-two-coalitions-moving-further-apart/

 

• http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2-voter-general-election-preferences/